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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."